CienciaApertura 17 jul · Resultados el 20 jul

Will Chile record an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 or greater before July 21, 2026?

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ResueltoSí

Resuelto: Sí

Resultados el 20 jul

🤖 Contexto

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) earthquake catalog lists one or more events with reported magnitude 4.6 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on July 18, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on July 21, 2026, and whose epicenter lies inside the Chile box defined for this market. Otherwise NO. If the USGS event service is unavailable at resolution time, the market will be resolved once the USGS catalog is reachable and the authoritative event list for that interval can be obtained.

Cómo se crean y se resuelven los mercados

Cómo se resolvió este mercado

Sí

50%

Probabilidad final de la comunidad

La multitud estaba 50% segura, y acertó.

Por qué: Extracted condition: USGS catalog must list ≥1 event with reported magnitude ≥4.6, origin time ≥2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00 and <2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter inside lat ∈[-56,-17], lon ∈[-76,-66]. Observed data (from supplied USGS query result): 1 matching earthquake — 2026-07-19 14:25 UTC, M4.7, lat -33.9224, lon -73.3832. Comparison: magnitude 4.7 ≥ 4.6 (satisfies); origin time 2026-07-19T14:25:00+00:00 is within the interval [2026-07-18T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-07-21T00:00:00+00:00) (satisfies); coordinates (-33.9224, -73.3832) lie inside the specified box (satisfies). All resolution criteria met, so YES.

Fuente: earthquake.usgs.gov

Datos clave

Probabilidad de la comunidad: 50%
Predicciones realizadas: 0
Créditos apostados: 0
Comentarios: 0
Apertura: 17 jul 2026
Cierre: 18 jul 2026
Resuelto el: 20 jul 2026
Resultado: Sí
Fuente de resolución: earthquake.usgs.gov

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Cómo se crean y se resuelven los mercados

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