Der Rückblick · 12. September 2026

Warum: The official Pierre Hermé online store had a live product page for the Céline Dion x Pierre Hermé limited‑edition macaron coffret showing price (€38), shipping options, and an active “Add to Cart” purchase flow, and it explicitly states availability starting 11/09/2026. This establishes that by Sept 11, 2026, a publicly accessible sales channel offered the specific collaboration coffret for immediate purchase with ordering/payment enabled. Independent coverage corroborates the 11 Sept availability/start of sales.

Warum: Extracted condition: recorded daily maximum temperature in New York City on 2026-09-11 ≥ 27.0 °C. Target date: Friday, 2026-09-11. Observed value (from Open‑Meteo daily record supplied): temperature_2m_max on 2026-09-11 = 27.8 °C (recorded). Comparison: 27.8 °C ≥ 27.0 °C, so the condition is met and the market resolves YES.

Warum: Extracted condition: Binance BTC/USDT most-recent-executed-trade price with timestamp <= 2026-09-12T10:00:00+00:00 UTC must be >= $78,000. Target instant: 2026-09-12T10:00:00+00:00 UTC. Supplied Binance observation matched: 2026-09-12 10:00 UTC = $77,349.44. Comparison: 77,349.44 < 78,000, so the condition is not met. (Equality would count as YES; multiple-trades-same-timestamp rule not applicable.)

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the provided evidence report that the Russian vessel Professor Molchanov was seized/arrested in Svalbard and remained detained in Barentsburg, while Norwegian authorities assisted in repatriating 69 Russian passengers and crew. Reuters (2026-09-08) explicitly states the ship “is being held in Barentsburg” and that Norway helped return the 69 Russians; The Moscow Times (2026-09-09) and The Maritime Executive (2026-09-09) likewise report the passengers were returned but the vessel remains held. The court/governor order required the vessel to remain in port until the Governor or the court decides otherwise. No source in the evidence pool reports the vessel being returned to Russian custody, released to a Russian crew, or departing Norwegian custody under Russian control by Sept 11, 2026. Therefore the correct settlement is NO.

Warum: Multiple independent, credible outlets in the supplied evidence (BBC, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, CNBC, NBC and the Institute for the Study of War) report that Houthi forces seized the Red Sea port city of Mokha/Mocha on 10 September 2026. Reports describe pro‑government forces withdrawing, witnesses and reporters seeing Houthi fighters move into and patrol the city, closed government offices and shops, and Houthi statements claiming control. These independent, dated accounts establish that by the specified deadline (03:00 on 12 Sept 2026 UTC+03) the Houthis had seized and were occupying/exercising control of Mokha.

Warum: Multiple independent sources in the supplied evidence report that Álvaro Morata made his competitive debut for C.D. Leganés in the league match at Las Palmas on 2026-09-04. The club's official Spanish report states he was titular and played 66 minutes; the club's English match report likewise records his start and substitution at 66'; FotMob's match page shows Morata listed in the starting lineup and substituted at 66'; and Atlanticohoy's match report also describes his debut. These contemporaneous, independent accounts unambiguously establish he made at least one official senior competitive appearance for Leganés before 2026-09-11.

Warum: Extracted condition: daily maximum temperature for Paris on 2026-09-11 must be ≥ 23.0 °C. Open-Meteo daily record (supplied data) shows 2026-09-11 temperature_2m_max = 25.5 °C (recorded). Comparison: 25.5 °C ≥ 23.0 °C, so the market resolves YES.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence report that Princess Leonor arrived at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Getafe campus) and began her university studies on Monday 7 September 2026. Servimedia (07‑Sep‑2026) states she 'inició este lunes' and details the classes she attended; Sur in English (07‑Sep‑2026), Diario las Américas (07‑Sep‑2026) and The Olive Press describe her arrival shortly before 9:00 and being greeted at the Adolfo Posada building; Reuters/EFE (video dated 2026‑09‑07) shows footage of her arrival and says she started classes. CBS News also reported her arrival on Monday 7 September. These independent, corroborating reports establish she was present on campus for academic activities on 2026‑09‑07, which falls inside the 2026‑09‑07 through 2026‑09‑11 window.

Warum: Apple’s own newsroom and press release, plus multiple independent news outlets in the supplied evidence, state that iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders began on Saturday, September 12, 2026 (Apple’s newsroom says “Starting Saturday, September 12, at 5 a.m. PT”). MacRumors and Forbes likewise report a September 12 (5:00 a.m. PT) start. None of the supplied sources report pre-orders opening on September 11, 2026 (Pacific time). Therefore Apple did not begin accepting iPhone 18 Pro pre-orders on September 11, 2026 (Cupertino/Pacific).

Warum: Extracted condition: Madrid daily maximum temperature on 2026-09-11 >= 30.0 °C. Observed value (Open-Meteo daily temps): 2026-09-11 max = 30.7 °C (recorded). Comparison: 30.7 ≥ 30.0 → condition met, so YES.

Warum: - Premise (USOpen.org semifinalists): The 2026 US Open men’s singles semifinalists included Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe (plus Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov). Source: usopen.org semifinal breakdown page → This establishes Shelton was in a semifinal with a place in the final at stake. - Premise (ATP Tour news on results): The ATP Tour page lists a news item stating “Shelton downs Tiafoe in all-American SF, into first Grand Slam final at US Open.” Source: atptour.com semi-final schedule page (news cards) → This explicitly states Shelton won his semifinal and reached the US Open final. - Institutional rule: Winners of the two semifinals are the two finalists → If Shelton won his semifinal, he is by definition one of the two finalists. Conclusion: By the end of the 2026 US Open, Ben Shelton was one of the two men’s singles finalists.

Warum: The European Commission publicly announced on 8 September 2026 that it would provide enhanced operational assistance to Spain on Ceuta. The Commission press release of 8 Sep 2026 (ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_1799) states it is providing emergency funding and that Frontex has agreed to extend the current Joint Operation Minerva, “ensur[ing] the continued deployment of Frontex's Standing Corps officers in Ceuta.” The same release says Europol “has confirmed it will continue the existing cooperation with the Spanish law enforcement authorities.” Multiple independent news outlets reported the Commission’s decision. Those statements constitute a public Commission confirmation, on or before 11 Sep 2026, of Frontex deployment and Europol operational support as defined in the question.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must record Shishaldin's Volcano Alert Level = "NORMAL" at any time after 2026-09-09T00:00:00Z and before 2026-09-12T00:00:00Z. Target window: (2026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC, 2026-09-12 00:00:00 UTC). Observed data (USGS feed retrieved 2026-09-12 06:03 UTC): Shishaldin is listed as ADVISORY with "level unchanged since 2025-08-25 19:48:35 UTC (previous level: NORMAL)". The feed lists only elevated volcanoes (absence => NORMAL); Shishaldin is present and ADVISORY. Because the "level unchanged since" timestamp (2025-08-25 19:48:35 UTC) is before the market window start, the ADVISORY level was in effect throughout the entire window and there was no time during the window when the level was NORMAL. Therefore the market resolves NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must record ≥1 earthquake with magnitude ≥5.1 and origin time on or after 2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00 and before 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00 that the USGS lists as occurring in Chile. Target window: [2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00). Observed data: the USGS catalog query for that exact window and region returned 0 matching earthquake(s) (explicitly 'no matching earthquakes'). Comparison: 0 matches < 1 required, so the condition is not met. Decision: NO.

Warum: Multiple independent, contemporaneous news reports dated 2026-09-11 (including the program’s own TV Azteca page and independent outlets La Opinión, El Heraldo de México, Publimetro and TVNotas) document Niurka Marcos participating in La Granja VIP Segunda Temporada on that date (presence at the premiere/reencuentros and a heated confrontation with Manelyk) and TVNotas’ coverage of the 11 Sept ‘Traición’ events shows nomination activity without reporting Niurka being eliminated, evicted, expelled, or withdrawing. None of the supplied sources report her having left the show on 2026-09-11, so as of 23:59 (Mexico City time) on 2026-09-11 she was still an active contestant.

Warum: Extracted condition: The Kalshi market KXATPMATCH-26SEP11TIASHE-SHE must have Official status = 'finalized' with Official finalized result = 'YES' (which corresponds to Ben Shelton winning the Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton 2026 US Open men's singles semifinal after play has begun). Target: that exact Kalshi ticker's finalized outcome. Observed value(s) from supplied data: Official status = finalized; Official finalized result = YES. Comparison: Official finalized result equals 'YES', so the market condition is satisfied → outcome YES. Decisive evidence date inferred from the ticker string '26SEP11' in the supplied data as 2026-09-11.

Warum: Extracted condition: Kalshi ticker KXATPMATCH-26SEP11TIASHE-TIA must be in status 'finalized' and Kalshi's official settlement for that ticker must be 'Yes' (i.e., Kalshi settled that Frances Tiafoe won after play began). Target observation: the Kalshi 'Official status' and 'Official finalized result' lines for that ticker in the supplied data. Observed values from supplied data: Official status = finalized; Official finalized result = NO. Comparison: the official finalized result is NOT 'Yes' (it is 'NO'), so the Clutch market resolves NO. The supplied data did not include a date for the match or the finalization, so decisiveEvidenceDate is null.

Warum: Multiple independent contemporaneous news reports state that on Friday, September 11, 2026, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Melynee Leftridge set bond for Kroy “KJ” Biermann Jr. (reported at $200,000) and ordered his release from custody that day. Page Six, Us Magazine, and the Daily Mail each report the judge granted bond and the teen was released with conditions (electronic monitoring, residence restrictions, no contact orders), corroborating the event occurred on 2026-09-11.

Warum: Multiple independent news and analysis outlets in the supplied evidence report that U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iranian territory. Reuters and AP reported the U.S. launched airstrikes against IRGC/ Iranian targets on September 1, 2026, and CriticalThreats (ISW-CTP) cites CENTCOM confirmation that September 1 strikes targeted air defenses, radar, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications sites. These are kinetic strikes on territory inside Iran and occurred before the September 11, 2026 22:00 (UTC−04:00) deadline.