Der Rückblick · 25. Juli 2026

Warum: The official Préfecture de la Gironde website published a situation update titled “Incendie en cours : point de situation à 21h30” (gironde.gouv.fr) which states “Environ 4 800 hectares ont été parcourus par les flammes.” The page includes a downloadable PDF dated 2026-07-23 (point de situation à 21h30), i.e. published before the 12:00 CEST cutoff on 2026-07-24. The reported burned area (~4,800 ha) is strictly greater than 1,000 ha, so the condition in the question is met.

Warum: Extracted condition: The ProCyclingStats Stage 20 (Le Bourg d'Oisans → Alpe d'Huez) result page must list Tadej Pogačar as the rider in position 1 when the page is published/updated after the stage. Target: Stage 20 result page published/updated after the stage (page shows Date: 25 July 2026). Observations from the supplied page: Rnk 1 = Carapaz Richard (EF Education - EasyPost) is listed as the stage winner; Tadej Pogačar appears at Rnk 4 on the same results page. The page does not indicate the stage was canceled/neutralized/void nor shows multiple riders jointly ranked 1st including Pogačar. Comparison: position 1 is Carapaz, not Pogačar, so the condition for YES is not met. Therefore the market resolves NO.

Warum: Multiple contemporaneous news reports covering La Velada del Año VI at Estadio La Cartuja (25 July 2026) list Marta Díaz as the victor over Tatiana Kaer. For example, Gestión's 2026-07-25 results article explicitly lists “Marta Díaz vs. Tatiana Kaer (Ganadora: Marta Díaz)”; Expreso, AS (MeriStation), Los40 and Depor publish live-results/winners pages from 25 July 2026 that also record Marta Díaz as the winner. No supplied source contradicts this. Based on these independent reports, the match outcome is resolved as Marta Díaz defeating Tatiana Kaer.

Warum: Multiple independent news outlets reporting on La Velada del Año VI on 2026-07-25 state that Edu Aguirre defeated Gastón Edul. ClaroSports explicitly reports Aguirre won by split decision (4-1), and AS (MeriStation) live updates likewise name Edu Aguirre as the winner of the third fight. These contemporaneous reports confirm Aguirre's victory on July 25, 2026.

Warum: Extracted condition: Clutch's finalized archived total for the local calendar day ending Saturday, 2026-07-25 must show at least 570 distinct SNCF trains whose latest reported delay was >= 5 minutes. Target window: local calendar day 2026-07-25 (local midnight through end of that day). Observed finalized archived total (finalized by Clutch 2026-07-25 22:00 UTC; last official observation 2026-07-25 21:58 UTC) = 506 trains seen since local midnight with latest reported delay >= 5 minutes, covering the local calendar day ending at 2026-07-25 21:59 UTC. Comparison: 506 < 570, so the threshold was not met. Therefore outcome is NO.

Warum: The official Formula1.com results for the 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix list Lando Norris as P1 in the Qualifying classification and show Kimi Antonelli in P4 (time 1:17.479). Therefore Antonelli was not listed as pole (P1) on Formula1.com's official qualifying/results pages for the event on July 25, 2026.

Warum: Contemporaneous reports quoting Météo‑France bulletins for Saturday 25 July 2026 (see sources below) identify the departments placed in vigilance ORANGE for the hazard “orages” as Bouches‑du‑Rhône (13) and Var (83) and list the Occitanie departments (Hérault, Gard, Aude, Aveyron, Lozère, Pyrénées‑Orientales, Ariège, Tarn, Haute‑Garonne, Gers, Lot, Hautes‑Pyrénées, Tarn‑et‑Garonne, etc.) as vigilance JAUNE. None of the supplied sources show any Occitanie department flagged ORANGE or ROUGE for the hazard “orages” in Météo‑France bulletins whose validity included 25 July 2026, so the correct settlement is NO.

Warum: The NHC's official public advisory titled "Remnants Of Bertha Advisory Number 19" states verbatim "...BERTHA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...", (issued 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 / 0300 UTC). This is an explicit NHC declaration that Bertha was no longer a tropical cyclone and that tropical cyclone advisories for it were ended, issued well before 12:00 UTC on July 25, 2026.

Warum: Extracted condition: the most recent executed Binance BTC/USDT trade with timestamp <= 2026-07-25T10:00:00+00:00 must have price >= 66,000. Target instant: 2026-07-25 10:00:00 UTC. Observed value from supplied data at 2026-07-25 10:00 UTC: 64000 USDT. Comparison: 64000 < 66000, so the condition is not met. (A pre-10:00 trade exists at 10:00 itself, so no fallback lookup within the +300s window was required.)

Warum: INMET's official page 'Condições do Tempo Registradas' (Data de Referência: 24/07/2026) lists the precipitation for NATAL as 15.4 mm on 2026-07-24, which exceeds the 5.0 mm threshold. This is an INMET-published station/capital precipitation value for that date, so the condition is met.

Warum: Multiple supplied news sources dated 23–24 July 2026 report that the Préfecture de la Gironde issued/was quoted as issuing mandatory evacuation orders for areas including Lège‑Cap‑Ferret / the Arcachon basin and Biscarrosse. Notably, the Arab News item (AFP) of 24 July 2026 states “la préfecture de la Gironde a ordonné ... l'évacuation de plusieurs villages ... précisant dans un communiqué ...”, and Reuters and RFI (23–24 July) likewise report thousands evacuated in Gironde because of the fires. These pieces constitute positive evidence that the Préfecture published communiqués ordering evacuations (contrary to a communiqué asserting there are no mandatory evacuation orders). No supplied source shows an official communiqué from the Préfecture, the Interior Ministry, or gouvernement.fr asserting that there were no mandatory evacuation orders in effect by the deadline, while several supplied sources explicitly report mandatory evacuations. Therefore the answer is NO.

Warum: The supplied NHC advisory material (Post‑Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 24) dated 800 AM PDT Jul 20, 2026, records Elida as post‑tropical with an initial intensity of 35 kt (40 mph) and provides forecast wind values that only decrease; the discussion explicitly states "This is the last NHC advisory on Elida." None of the provided NHC pages or advisories record Elida having sustained winds ≥64 kt (74 mph) on or before 00:00 PDT Jul 25, 2026. Therefore, based on the supplied official NHC advisories, the system did not reach hurricane‑force winds by the cutoff.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must record Kilauea at WATCH or higher at any time >= 2026-07-22T00:00:00Z and < 2026-07-25T00:00:00Z. Observations (USGS Volcano Updates retrieved 2026-07-25 06:00 UTC): Kilauea is listed as ADVISORY, with 'level unchanged since 2026-07-16 03:06:24 UTC' (latest Hans2 notice timestamp 2026-07-24T18:32:47Z). The data's timing note states that a 'level unchanged since' timestamp before the window start means the level was constant through the entire window. Therefore Kilauea was ADVISORY (which is below WATCH) for the entire window 2026-07-22 to 2026-07-25, so it was not WATCH or higher at any time in that window. Conclusion: NO.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must list >=1 earthquake with numeric magnitude >= 5.9, origin time >= 2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-07-25T00:00:00+00:00, and epicenter within bounding box minlatitude=14, maxlatitude=33, minlongitude=-118, maxlongitude=-86. Observed data: the USGS query with those exact parameters returned 0 matching earthquake(s) ("0 matching earthquake(s)"). Comparison: 0 matching events < 1 required, so the condition was not met. The current timestamp (2026-07-25T06:00:46Z) is after the window end (2026-07-25T00:00:00Z), so the resolution window is closed; therefore outcome = NO.

Warum: The match page at the exact URL given (the market's own source page, re-fetched live) did not display a final score — it shows "Data is currently unavailable" and a missing/404 state rather than listing Portland as the winner. Corroborating ESPN snapshots of the same gameId show the score as 2-2 at 89'/90'+1' (not a Portland victory) and no supplied evidence shows ESPN listing Portland with more goals (FT). Therefore, based on the supplied pages, ESPN's match summary page does not show Portland Thorns FC as the match winner by the requested time.

Warum: Official pages on Gshow explicitly state that Ingrid assumes the presidency after a Council vote. The Gshow 'Resumo da semana de 20 a 25 de julho' entry for Friday 24/07 says: “Ingrid assume a presidência da joalheria após votação do Conselho…”. The Gshow article ‘após jogada de Pilar, Ingrid vira presidente da joalheria’ (23/07/2026) likewise describes Ulisses casting the deciding vote and quotes the vote for Ingrid. Both are on gshow.globo.com and explicitly report Ingrid assuming the presidency following the Council vote, so the answer is YES.

Warum: Multiple contemporaneous news reports from July 24, 2026 (CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS) show Colt Gray pleaded guilty and that the sentencing phase began that day (victim impact statements and evidence were presented), but they explicitly report the judge did not impose a final sentence on July 24 and that the hearing was expected to resume/continue the following week. None of the supplied sources reports that Gray was sentenced on July 24 to life without parole; instead they state the judge must still decide whether parole eligibility will be allowed. This is positive evidence that the specific event in the question did not occur on July 24, 2026.

Warum: Extracted condition: Resolve YES if the mirrored Polymarket submarket 'Will Trump say "Million," "Billion," or "Trillion" 10+ times during remarks in Georgia?' resolves to YES on the Polymarket event page (deadline per rule: by 11:59 PM UTC on 2026-07-24). Observed evidence: Polymarket official market state shows that specific submarket's resolution status = resolved, closed = yes, outcome prices: Yes=1, No=0 (i.e., resolved to YES). Comparison: mirrored Polymarket market resolved to YES, so this market resolves to YES.