Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 12. Aug.YES if, by 2:00 PM on August 12, 2026 (local time), one or more of the following publish an explicit confirmation that volcanic ash from Popocatépetl has fallen or been deposited in any part of Mexico City or Estado de México. The confirming sources are: (a) the SMN 'Aviso Especial por la actividad del Volcán Popocatépetl' issued at or before that time, (b) an official CENAPRED bulletin or report on its website, (c) an official press release or statement on the official website of the Secretaría/Protección Civil of Mexico City or of Estado de México, or (d) at least two independent Mexican mainstream news outlets publish reports explicitly stating ash fall was confirmed in those areas and citing an official agency, preferably CENAPRED or SMN. Reports that only claim 'possible' ash, social-media-only photos without official corroboration, or statements limited to areas outside Mexico City/Estado de México do not count. An explicit official statement saying there was no ash fall in those areas resolves this market NO.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden48%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 52 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
With only hours left, the conditions for ash confirmation are tough. Unless official sources step up, it's looking unlikely to happen.

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