🌍·GeopoliticsEndet 21. Sept. · Ergebnisse 22. Sept.
Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?
40%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
197 Wetten · 3641 Credits1
Details →
Eröffnet 11. Aug. · Ergebnisse 15. Aug.
Will U.S. forces fire on, strike, or otherwise engage at least one vessel they say was trying to break a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports?
28%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 20 Wettende💎 514 im Einsatz
AufgelöstNein
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 15. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The market required that between 00:00 on August 12, 2026 and 23:59:59 on August 14, 2026 (UTC+3) the U.S. government or a major international news agency publicly state that U.S. forces fired on or struck at least one vessel and described the action as intended to stop that vessel from breaking or attempting to break a U.S. blockade or maritime interdiction of Iranian ports. Multiple credible outlets reported that U.S. Central Command said a U.S. Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama-flagged M/V Vela Nova to stop it from trying to transit the Gulf of Oman and violate the U.S. blockade, and those reports date the strike to August 11, 2026. Because the engagement and the U.S. statement occurred on August 11, 2026, before the market window opened on August 12 (UTC+3), the condition was not met during the specified period, so the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Nein28%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 72 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Multiple independent, credible outlets (AP, Al Jazeera, WSJ, Reuters, CBS) report that U.S. Central Command said a U.S. Navy helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles at the Panama‑flagged M/V Vela Nova because the vessel “attempted to transit the Gulf of Oman and violate the U.S. blockade against Iran” (i.e., the U.S. explicitly described the strike as to stop a ship trying to breach the blockade). Those reports date the strike to 2026-08-11 (e.g. Al Jazeera and WSJ reporting the incident on 11 Aug 2026). The market’s window begins 2026-08-12 00:00 (UTC+3). Because the reported engagement and the U.S. statement about its purpose occurred on 2026-08-11 (i.e. before the window), there is no evidence in the provided material that such an engagement and statement occurred between 12 Aug and 14 Aug 2026 (UTC+3). Therefore the answer is NO.
Quelle: apnews.comWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 28%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 20
- Gesetzte Credits
- 514
- Kommentare
- 2
- Eröffnet
- 11. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 11. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 15. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Nein
- Auflösungsquelle
- apnews.com, wsj.com, aljazeera.com
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 2 Kommentare
- 💀@maxence.goat💠Auf Nein gewettet· 100 💎
No courage
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Highly unlikely. With less than a day to go and no current signs of U.S. engagement in this scenario, it seems more a matter of posturing than an actual strike.
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