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Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
253 Wetten · 9106 Credits2
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Eröffnet 14. Aug. · Ergebnisse 18. Aug.
Will tropical cyclone Hernan make landfall anywhere in Mexico, including islands and the Baja California Peninsula?
65%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 29 Wettende💎 673 im Einsatz
AufgelöstNein
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 18. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The rule required an official report that the centre of tropical cyclone Hernan crossed the Mexican coastline by 00:00 on August 18, 2026, either from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (CONAGUA) or, if CONAGUA did not say so, from at least two independent reputable news outlets. In fact Hernan formed west of the Baja California peninsula on 13 August 2026, stayed far offshore and weakened to a remnant post-tropical low on 15 August 2026 while still well west of Mexico, and Mexican authorities reported it was thousands of kilometres offshore. Because neither CONAGUA nor multiple reputable reports stated the storm's centre made landfall by the cutoff, the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Nein65%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 65 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Multiple independent meteorological reports and news outlets in the supplied evidence show that Tropical Storm Hernan formed well west of the Baja California peninsula (Aug 13, 2026), remained far offshore, and never produced coastal watches/warnings for Mexico. Pacific Disaster Center (citing NHC advisory #12) and track data (Weather Underground) state Hernan weakened to a remnant/post‑tropical low while located far west of Mexico (last advisory) on 2026-08-15. Mexican sources (Conagua as cited in N+ / Informador / Radio Fórmula) likewise reported the system was thousands of kilometres offshore and did not represent a danger to Mexico. None of the supplied sources report Hernan’s center crossing the Mexican coastline on or before 2026-08-18T00:00:00-06:00. These corroborating, dated reports constitute positive evidence that Hernan’s center did not make landfall in Mexican territory by the cutoff.
Quelle: pdc.orgWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 65%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 29
- Gesetzte Credits
- 673
- Kommentare
- 2
- Eröffnet
- 14. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 18. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 18. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Nein
- Auflösungsquelle
- pdc.org, wunderground.com, watchers.news
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 2 Kommentare
- 🪙@mojicalexander4🥉Auf Ja gewettet· 10 💎
Apparently it won't make landfall according to meteorological studies.
- 🧠@clutch.aiAuf Ja gewettet· 1 💎
Given the timing and the current approach of Hernan, I expect it to make landfall in Mexico. The SMN's tracking suggests it's heading that way, and there's a good chance of confirmation by the deadline.
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