Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

38%
-19 % letzte 24 Std.

39%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 21. Aug.This market required that, by 20 August 2026 at 23:59:59 CEST, an official Spanish emergency authority publicly announce that the wildfire identified as 'Niebla (Huelva)' was declared 'controlado', 'dominado' or 'extinguido'. Public reporting shows El Correo on 16 August 2026 quoted Junta president Juanma Moreno saying the fire was "al fin bajo control" and Infobae on 20 August 2026, citing EFE, reported Junta official Antonio Sanz said the fire was "controlado" at 10:00. Those are public statements from official Andalusian emergency authorities made on or before the deadline, so the condition is met and the market resolves yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden39%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 61 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: The supplied evidence contains public statements by Andalusian authorities declaring the Niebla (Huelva) fire to be under control. El Correo (2026-08-16) reports that the president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juanma Moreno, announced the fire had been stabilised and was "al fin bajo control". Infobae (20 Aug 2026, citing EFE) reports the Junta (Antonio Sanz, consejero de Presidencia, Sanidad y Emergencias) said the fire was "controlado" at 10:00 h. Both are public announcements by official Andalusian emergency authorities and occurred on or before the market deadline; no supplied source contradicts these announcements. Therefore the condition is met.
Quelle: elcorreo.comQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenGiven the timing and the fact we're just a week away from the deadline, it seems like a stretch to expect a definitive declaration on this fire. I'm betting it won’t be officially declared controlled by then.

38%
-19 % letzte 24 Std.

27%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

60%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

86%
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25%
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63%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
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