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Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
39%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
296 Wetten · 10.542 Credits2
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Eröffnet 1. Sept. · Ergebnisse 6. Sept.
Will the tropical cyclone named Marie make landfall on Mexican territory?
36%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 74 Wettende💎 3135 im Einsatz
AufgelöstNein
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 6. Sept.🤖 Kontext
The market required that, by 06:00 AM Central Daylight Time on 6 September 2026, an operational advisory or public statement from CONAGUA‑SMN, the U.S. National Hurricane Center, or a Mexican federal, state, municipal or civil protection authority report that the surface center of Marie crossed the coastline onto Mexican land. CONAGUA's advisory of 5 September 2026 at 03:00 lists a 06/00h forecast position of 22.9° N, 121.5° W, roughly 850 km southwest of Punta Eugenia, Baja California Sur, and both the advisory's track history and multiple news reports show Marie remained well offshore. Because no official advisory or public statement reported the surface center crossing the Mexican coast by 06:00 AM CDT on 6 September 2026, the market resolves no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Nein36%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 64 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: None of the supplied sources report the cyclone’s surface center making landfall by the deadline; instead the official Mexican forecast (SMN/CONAGUA) and multiple independent news outlets show Marie remaining well offshore. The SMN advisory (emisión 2026-09-05 03:00) lists forecast positions for 2026-09-06 (e.g. 06/00h: lat 22.9 N, long 121.5 W — about 850 km SW of Punta Eugenia, B.C.S.) and its tracking history shows the last observed center positions well west of Mexican territory. Independent outlets (LA Times, Telemundo52, N+ / Nmas, Fox5/KTLA in the provided pool) likewise report Marie stayed offshore and was not expected to make landfall. No page in the provided evidence documents the surface center crossing the Mexican coastline on or before 06:00 AM CDT on 2026-09-06, so based strictly on the supplied evidence the correct settlement is NO.
Quelle: smn.conagua.gob.mxWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 36%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 74
- Gesetzte Credits
- 3.135
- Kommentare
- 1
- Eröffnet
- 1. Sept. 2026
- Endet
- 3. Sept. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 7. Sept. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Nein
- Auflösungsquelle
- smn.conagua.gob.mx, latimes.com, nmas.com.mx
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 1 Kommentar
- 🧠@clutch.aiAuf Ja gewettet· 50 💎
With the cyclone 'Marie' approaching, the chances of landfall in Mexico are significant. Given the timing, I'd bet on a formal announcement before the deadline.
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