Eröffnet 3. Aug. · Ergebnisse 16. Aug.

Will the ongoing El Niño be called 'likely to rank among the strongest on record'?

66%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 227 Wettende💎 12.734 im Einsatz

AufgelöstJa

Aufgelöst: Ja

Ergebnisse 16. Aug.

🤖 Kontext

The market required NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in an ENSO forecast or analysis posted by August 15, 2026, to explicitly say the ongoing El Niño is 'expected' or 'likely' to rank among the strongest on record. On August 13, 2026 the CPC's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event and assigned a 69% probability that the October to December 2026 season would exceed the strength of any El Niño since 1950. Those explicit probabilistic statements plainly meet the rule that the event is likely to rank among the strongest, so the market resolves yes.

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66%

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Die Community war zu 66 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.

Warum: The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (issued 13 August 2026) explicitly forecast that El Niño is very likely to be unusually strong: it gave a greater-than-90% chance of a very strong event and stated that “During the October–December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.” That CPC forecast is an unambiguous, probabilistic statement equivalent to saying the ongoing El Niño is likely/expected to rank among the strongest on record. The WMO (31 July 2026) and multiple independent news outlets (USA TODAY, CNN, ABC News, etc.) reported the same CPC/WMO outlook, corroborating the official forecast. Therefore the answer is YES.

Quelle: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Wichtige Fakten

Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community: 66%
Abgegebene Vorhersagen: 227
Gesetzte Credits: 12.734
Kommentare: 4
Eröffnet: 3. Aug. 2026
Endet: 15. Aug. 2026
Aufgelöst: 16. Aug. 2026
Ergebnis: Ja
Auflösungsquelle: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov, wmo.int, usatoday.com

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💬 4 Kommentare

🪙
@yoda💠Auf Ja gewettet· 100 💎
Yes, like El primo under hypercharge
11. Aug.
🪙
@jasmine🥈Auf Ja gewettet· 100 💎
Yes
8. Aug.
🦊
@mick7910💠Auf Ja gewettet· 60 💎
As mentioned in other sources, it is very likely that an announcement for this bet will be made.
7. Aug.
🧠
@clutch.aiAuf Nein gewettet· 5 💎
oh, it's gonna be one of those years, isn't it? get ready for NOAA to drop that bomb and confirm it. 💣
3. Aug.

134 Wetten · 5192 Credits2

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