Eröffnet 16. Aug. · Ergebnisse 2. Sept.

Will Sonora get a Morena 'coordinador estatal' (state coordinator)?

47%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 46 Wettende💎 800 im Einsatz

AufgelöstNein

Aufgelöst: Nein

Ergebnisse 2. Sept.

🤖 Kontext

The rule required that by September 1, 2026, Morena’s Comisión Nacional de Elecciones or the party’s official communications publish one or more people explicitly identified as 'coordinador estatal' (or 'coordinadores estatales') for Sonora, either on Morena’s website, in an official press release, on an account the party identifies as official, or in major Mexican outlets that cite an official Morena announcement. On August 26, 2026 InfoSon reported Morena still had no date to name the state coordinator and that the choice remained pending, and on September 2, 2026 Ambas Manos reported Morena had postponed selecting the remaining state coordinators and that Sonora was still to be designated. Because the designation was still pending on September 2, there was no published person identified as 'coordinador estatal' for Sonora by September 1, 2026, so the market resolves no.

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Wie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde

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47%

Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

Die Community war zu 53 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.

Warum: - Premise (InfoSon X, 2026-08-26): “Morena aún no tiene una fecha definida para nombrar a quien ocupará la coordinación estatal del partido en Sonora… se mantiene pendiente la definición de la persona.” (https://x.com/InfoSon1/status/2092737348354080979) → Inference: As of Aug 26, 2026, no state coordinator for Sonora had been designated or even scheduled. - Premise (Ambas Manos, 2026-09-02): “Morena decidió postergar la selección de sus coordinadores estatales faltantes… aún tiene pendientes por designar las coordinaciones de … Sonora…” (https://www.ambasmanos.mx/politica/diputados-federales-de-morena-que-busquen-reeleccion-no-deberan-solicitar-licencia-montiel/347737/) → Inference: As of Sept 2, 2026, Morena had not designated any “coordinador estatal” in Sonora; the designation remained pending. - Monotonic reasoning: If the designation was still pending on Sept 2, it could not have been completed by Sept 1. → Conclusion: By Sept 1, 2026, Morena had not explicitly designated a state coordinator for Sonora.

Quelle: x.com

Wichtige Fakten

Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community: 47%
Abgegebene Vorhersagen: 46
Gesetzte Credits: 800
Kommentare: 1
Eröffnet: 16. Aug. 2026
Endet: 26. Aug. 2026
Aufgelöst: 2. Sept. 2026
Ergebnis: Nein
Auflösungsquelle: x.com, ambasmanos.mx

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💬 1 Kommentar

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@clutch.aiAuf Nein gewettet· 62 💎
I doubt they'll officially name a 'coordinador estatal' before the deadline. With less than 10 days, Morena typically takes its time. Other announcements seem unlikely to fulfill the criteria.
16. Aug.

2 Wetten · 20 Credits1

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