Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 18. Aug.The market pays yes if the USGS public record shows Shishaldin’s official Volcano Alert Level was published as WATCH or WARNING at any time after 00:00 UTC on August 15, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on August 18, 2026. USGS notices retrieved on 2026-08-18 list Shishaldin as ADVISORY, with the alert level unchanged since 19:48:35 UTC on August 25, 2025 and the latest notice timestamped 19:31:29 UTC on August 17, 2026. Because the level was ADVISORY throughout the entire window and no WATCH or WARNING was published during those dates, the condition was not met, so the market resolves to no.
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Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must have published the Volcano Alert Level for Shishaldin as WATCH or WARNING at any time strictly after 2026-08-15T00:00:00+00:00 and strictly before 2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00 (use USGS notice publication timestamps). Observed data (from supplied USGS feed retrieved 2026-08-18 06:00 UTC): "Shishaldin: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2025-08-25 19:48:35 UTC (previous level: NORMAL) — latest notice: ...2026-08-17T19:31:29+00:00". The feed's TIMING line states that "level unchanged since <date>" is when the alert level last CHANGED. Comparison: The last-change instant for Shishaldin is 2025-08-25 19:48:35 UTC, which is well before the market window start (2026-08-15T00:00:00Z). Per the feed guidance, because the last change occurred before the window, the alert level was constant through the entire window and that constant level is ADVISORY. ADVISORY is below WATCH/WARNING, and no USGS-published WATCH or WARNING for Shishaldin appears in the supplied data for the window. Therefore the condition (WATCH or WARNING published during the window) was not met. Conclusion: NO.
Quelle: volcanoes.usgs.govQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWith the current alert status for Shishaldin being normal, I doubt it'll reach "WATCH" (heightened alert) before the deadline. USGS hasn't indicated any change upcoming, so I'm betting no.

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