Eröffnet 2. Aug. · Ergebnisse 6. Aug.

Will Shishaldin drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?

46%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 47 Wettende💎 1169 im Einsatz

AufgelöstNein

Aufgelöst: Nein

Ergebnisse 6. Aug.

🤖 Kontext

YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) lists Shishaldin's Volcano Alert Level as NORMAL at any time on or after August 3, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 6, 2026, according to USGS (preferably via USGS Volcano Notification Service notices or the USGS "Volcano updates" page). Contemporaneous independent reporting that quotes USGS is acceptable. If the USGS later publicly corrects or retracts that notice so the corrected USGS record no longer shows NORMAL within the window, the corrected USGS record controls.

Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden

Wie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde

Nein

46%

Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

Die Community war zu 54 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.

Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must list Shishaldin's Volcano Alert Level as NORMAL at any instant in the window [2026-08-03T00:00:00Z, 2026-08-06T00:00:00Z). Supplied observation (retrieved 2026-08-06 06:00 UTC): the USGS feed lists Shishaldin as ADVISORY with 'level unchanged since 2025-08-25 19:48:35 UTC' (previous level: NORMAL). The feed only lists elevated volcanoes (absence = NORMAL); because Shishaldin is present and ADVISORY and its last change to ADVISORY occurred before the window start, the level was ADVISORY throughout the entire window. Comparison: ADVISORY ≠ NORMAL at any instant in the window → market resolves NO.

Quelle: volcanoes.usgs.gov