Eröffnet 21. Juli · Ergebnisse 4. Aug.

Will PP be ahead of PSOE in Spain's polls on August 5?

70%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 62 Wettende💎 1524 im Einsatz

AufgelöstJa

Aufgelöst: Ja

Ergebnisse 4. Aug.

🤖 Kontext

YES if the topmost poll row in the "Main voting‑intention" table on the English Wikipedia page "Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election" shows a strictly higher numeric percentage for Partido Popular (PP) than for the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) when the page is fetched at or after 00:00 on August 5, 2026 (Central European Summer Time). Otherwise NO. If the table is missing or the top row lacks numeric percentages for PP or PSOE, or if the two percentages are exactly equal to the precision shown, the market resolves NO.

Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden

Wie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde

70%

Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

Die Community war zu 70 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.

Warum: Extracted condition: the topmost poll row in the 'Main voting‑intention' table on the specified Wikipedia page, as displayed when fetched at or after 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00, must show PP strictly greater than PSOE. Target fetch time: >= 2026-08-05T00:00:00+02:00 (the prompt's current time 2026-08-04T22:00:58.643Z = 2026-08-05T00:00:58.643+02:00, which meets the requirement). Observed topmost poll row from supplied data: EM-Analytics/Electomanía (fieldwork 30 Jun–1 Aug 2026) shows PP = 32.5 and PSOE = 27.2. Comparison: 32.5 > 27.2 (strict). Both percentages are present and not equal to the displayed precision, so the market resolves YES.

Quelle: en.wikipedia.org