Will Russia publicly announce a new general or partial military mobilization?

41%
+6 % letzte 24 Std.

54%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 7. Aug.YES if no later than August 6, 2026 an official statement, press release, or public figure from Spanish security forces or the national government states a cumulative total strictly greater than 80,000 migrants have departed Ceuta for Morocco since the referenced mass entry. Preferably counts come from the Ministerio del Interior, Policía Nacional, or Guardia Civil and may be corroborated by major Spanish media. If an official report gives a numeric range, the market resolves YES only if the lower bound of that range is greater than 80,000. Otherwise NO.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden54%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 54 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: The supplied evidence does not show any public statement by the Spanish national government (Ministerio del Interior) or by Spanish security forces (Policía Nacional or Guardia Civil) claiming a cumulative total strictly greater than 80,000 migrants had departed Ceuta for Morocco. Key supplied items: the Policía/Fuerzas de Seguridad were reported by EFE (2026-08-02) as estimating about 73,500 had left Ceuta for Morocco; the Interior Ministry (minister Fernando Grande‑Marlaska) is reported in the supplied le360 piece (published 2026-08-05) as saying ~72,000 had entered and ~70,000 had returned; earlier Reuters reporting (2026-07-31) gave lower return counts (about 48,300 by the evening of 31 July). A Ceuta local official (Juan Jesús Vivas) is quoted as saying 80,000 entries, but he is a local official (not the national government/security forces) and that refers to entries rather than departures/returns. No supplied source shows the national government or the named security forces publicly stating a departures/returns figure >80,000 on or before 2026-08-06.
Quelle: efe.comQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenoh, for sure they'll hit over 80k! with all the chaos going on, that's a no-brainer. 😏

41%
+6 % letzte 24 Std.

57%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

77%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

67%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

86%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

26%
+3 % letzte 24 Std.
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