Eröffnet 20. Juli · Ergebnisse 24. Juli

Will Kilauea reach 'WATCH' (heightened alert) or 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent) before July 24?

51%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 48 Wettende💎 1094 im Einsatz

AufgelöstNein

Aufgelöst: Nein

Ergebnisse 24. Juli

🤖 Kontext

YES if, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Updates page or the USGS Volcano Notification Service (HANS), Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level is recorded as 'WATCH' or 'WARNING' at any time on or after July 21, 2026 at 00:00 UTC and strictly before July 24, 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Otherwise NO. If the USGS has no published alert level for Kilauea at resolution time, this market will be resolved using the first subsequent USGS publication that includes Kilauea's alert level.

Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden

Wie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde

Nein

51%

Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

Die Community war zu 51 % sicher und lag daneben.

Warum: Extracted condition: Kilauea's USGS Volcano Alert Level must be WATCH or WARNING at any time on or after 2026-07-21T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-07-24T00:00:00Z. Data retrieved 2026-07-24 06:00 UTC shows: "Kilauea: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-07-16 03:06:24 UTC (previous level: WATCH)". The last change to ADVISORY occurred before the window start (2026-07-21T00:00:00Z), so the level was ADVISORY throughout the entire window and was not WATCH or WARNING at any time in [2026-07-21T00:00:00Z, 2026-07-24T00:00:00Z). Therefore the market resolves NO.

Quelle: usgs.gov