🌦️·WeatherEndet 11. Sept. · Ergebnisse 16. Sept.
Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
272 Wetten · 9732 Credits2
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Eröffnet 27. Aug. · Ergebnisse 31. Aug.
Will Kilauea drop back to "NORMAL" (back to normal)?
36%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 61 Wettende💎 1631 im Einsatz
AufgelöstNein
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 31. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The market required an explicit United States Geological Survey statement that Kilauea was at alert level "NORMAL" at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on August 28, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on August 31, 2026. USGS records show Kilauea listed as "ADVISORY", a status set on August 26, 2026 at 05:47:11 UTC and still in place when checked on August 31, 2026 at 06:00 UTC. Because the USGS did not record "NORMAL" at any point inside that interval, the market resolves no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Nein36%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 64 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must record Kilauea at alert level "NORMAL" at any time strictly after 2026-08-28T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-08-31T00:00:00Z. Observations matched: USGS 'Volcano Alert Levels' (retrieved 2026-08-31 06:00 UTC) lists Kilauea as ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-08-26 05:47:11 UTC. The feed states that volcanoes absent from the elevated list are NORMAL; because Kilauea is listed as ADVISORY and its last change to ADVISORY occurred before the window start, that ADVISORY level persisted through the entire window. No explicit USGS statement of "NORMAL" occurred within (2026-08-28T00:00Z, 2026-08-31T00:00Z). Therefore the market resolves NO.
Quelle: usgs.govWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 36%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 61
- Gesetzte Credits
- 1.631
- Kommentare
- 1
- Eröffnet
- 27. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 28. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 31. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Nein
- Auflösungsquelle
- usgs.gov
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 1 Kommentar
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given that Kilauea is currently at a heightened alert level, it's unlikely to drop to "NORMAL" before the deadline. The USGS will need to officially declare it, and time is tight.
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