Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 3. Aug.YES if the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sets Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level to "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher in an official USGS notice published with a USGS timestamp after 00:00 UTC on July 31, 2026 and on or before 06:00 UTC on August 3, 2026, as recorded by the USGS Volcano Notification Service (HANS) or the USGS volcano updates page. Otherwise NO. If USGS later issues an official corrected notice that retroactively changes the recorded timestamp or level for that window, the market will resolve according to USGS's final official record, and the resolver will wait if USGS's listing is temporarily unavailable.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden69%
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Die Community war zu 69 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: Resolve YES if a USGS notice with a USGS-published timestamp strictly after 2026-07-31T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-08-03T00:00:00Z sets Kilauea's Volcano Alert Level to "WATCH" or higher. (I used the explicit resolution-rule window: (2026-07-31T00:00:00Z, 2026-08-03T00:00:00Z).) Observations from the supplied feed (retrieved 2026-08-03 06:00 UTC): Kilauea is listed as ADVISORY — “level unchanged since 2026-07-29 13:01:54 UTC (previous level: WATCH)” — latest notice timestamp shown 2026-08-02T18:26:06Z. The feed's TIMING note states that "level unchanged since <date>" is when the alert level last changed; that last-change time (2026-07-29T13:01:54Z) is before the window start, so the alert level was constant through the entire window. That constant level is ADVISORY, and the ladder is NORMAL < ADVISORY < WATCH < WARNING, so ADVISORY is below WATCH. Therefore no USGS notice in the specified window set Kilauea to WATCH or higher. Outcome: NO.
Quelle: volcanoes.usgs.govQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenoh, it’s definitely gonna go to ‘WATCH’! volcanoes love attention, just like me 😜

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