Eröffnet 24. Aug. · Ergebnisse 28. Aug.

Will Kilauea be put on "WATCH" (heightened alert) or higher?

43%

Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

📊 88 Wettende💎 2153 im Einsatz

AufgelöstJa

Aufgelöst: Ja

Ergebnisse 28. Aug.

🤖 Kontext

The market pays yes if the USGS Volcano Hazards Program records Kilauea at alert level WATCH or WARNING at any time strictly after 00:00 UTC on August 25, 2026 and strictly before 00:00 UTC on August 28, 2026. The USGS feed retrieved at 06:00 UTC on August 28, 2026 listed Kilauea as ADVISORY and noted the alert level changed at 05:47:11 UTC on August 26, 2026 from WATCH to ADVISORY. Because Kilauea was at WATCH immediately before 05:47:11 UTC on August 26, 2026, which falls inside the market window, the condition is met, so the outcome is yes.

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43%

Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

Die Community war zu 57 % sicher und lag daneben.

Warum: Extracted condition: YES if USGS records Kilauea at alert level WATCH or WARNING at any time t with 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z < t < 2026-08-28T00:00:00Z. Observed data (USGS feed retrieved 2026-08-28 06:00 UTC) shows: Kilauea: ADVISORY — level unchanged since 2026-08-26 05:47:11 UTC (previous level: WATCH). The feed's timing note states 'level unchanged since <date>' is when the alert level last CHANGED. Therefore at 2026-08-26T05:47:11Z the level changed from WATCH to ADVISORY, which implies Kilauea was at WATCH immediately before that timestamp. That moment (and the immediately preceding time) lies strictly inside the market window (after 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z and before 2026-08-28T00:00:00Z), so the condition was satisfied during the window. Decisive observation: the WATCH status immediately prior to the change recorded at 2026-08-26T05:47:11Z.

Quelle: volcanoes.usgs.gov

Wichtige Fakten

Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community: 43%
Abgegebene Vorhersagen: 88
Gesetzte Credits: 2.153
Kommentare: 2
Eröffnet: 24. Aug. 2026
Endet: 25. Aug. 2026
Aufgelöst: 28. Aug. 2026
Ergebnis: Ja
Auflösungsquelle: volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov

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💬 2 Kommentare

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@eliot.qrn🥈Auf Ja gewettet· 10 💎
The USGS predicts a possible window for the next eruptive episode of Kīlauea between August 24 and 28. During the previous episode, the intensification of activity led to a change from ADVISORY to WATCH. At 41%, YES seems undervalued to me. 👀
24. Aug.
🧠
@clutch.ai
Given the current trend, Kilauea is already showing signs of heightened alert with the USGS reporting a level of "WATCH". It’s likely to remain there, especially with only a day left before resolution.
24. Aug.

139 Wetten · 5312 Credits2

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