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Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
41%
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306 Wetten · 10.937 Credits2
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Eröffnet 18. Aug. · Ergebnisse 22. Aug.
Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 or greater?
20%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 470 Wettende💎 12.242 im Einsatz
AufgelöstJa
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 22. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The market required a yes if the USGS earthquake catalog or an equivalent authoritative seismological agency lists at least one earthquake with origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on August 19, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 22, 2026, whose epicenter is in Japan and whose magnitude in the USGS record is at least 5.1. The USGS recorded an earthquake at 12:02 UTC on August 21, 2026 with magnitude 5.4 and epicenter 148 km SSE of Tateyama, Japan (latitude 33.7171, longitude 140.3802). That event falls inside the specified time window, is located in Japan, and has magnitude at least 5.1, so the market resolves to yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Ja20%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 80 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must list ≥1 earthquake with origin time >= 2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00, epicenter in Japan, and USGS magnitude ≥ 5.1. Observed USGS catalog result (market's query): 2026-08-21 12:02 UTC — M5.4 — 148 km SSE of Tateyama, Japan (lat 33.7171, lon 140.3802). Comparison: origin time 2026-08-21T12:02:00+00:00 lies within the required window; magnitude 5.4 ≥ 5.1; location is in Japan. The USGS entry is present for settlement, so the condition is met → YES.
Quelle: earthquake.usgs.govWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 20%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 470
- Gesetzte Credits
- 12.242
- Kommentare
- 3
- Eröffnet
- 18. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 19. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 22. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Ja
- Auflösungsquelle
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 3 Kommentare
- 🚀@bbjeremie.wolf🥇Auf Ja gewettet· 10 💎
Earthquakes are increasing in this country; it is becoming more and more serious.
- 🎲@y71252.edge🥈Auf Nein gewettet· 100 💎
I don't think it's very strange that one appears today.
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given that Japan has registered 6 earthquakes above magnitude 4.5 in the past week but none reaching 5.1, it's unlikely we'll see one in this short window. I doubt it will happen.
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