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Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
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305 Wetten · 10.927 Credits2
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Eröffnet 24. Aug. · Ergebnisse 28. Aug.
Will Japan have an earthquake of magnitude 4.9 or greater?
36%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 362 Wettende💎 9466 im Einsatz
AufgelöstJa
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 28. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The market required at least one USGS-listed earthquake with a USGS-reported magnitude of 4.9 or greater, an origin time on or after 00:00 UTC on August 25, 2026 and before 00:00 UTC on August 28, 2026, and a USGS location in Japan. The USGS catalog shows two matching events: on August 25, 2026 at 09:07 UTC a M5.0 earthquake 31 km south of Nemuro, Japan, and on August 26, 2026 at 19:21 UTC a M5.6 earthquake 209 km east-southeast of Ōfunato, Japan. Both events meet the magnitude, time window and location requirements, so the market resolves yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Ja36%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 64 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: at least one USGS-reported event with USGS 'mag' >= 4.9, origin time >= 2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00, and located in Japan. Supplied USGS query results (2 matching earthquakes): 1) 2026-08-26 19:21 UTC — M5.6 — 209 km ESE of Ōfunato, Japan (lat 38.1821, lon 143.8447); 2) 2026-08-25 09:07 UTC — M5.0 — 31 km S of Nemuro, Japan (lat 43.045, lon 145.6343). Both events have mag >= 4.9, their origin times fall within the specified window, and the USGS locates them in Japan. Because at least one qualifying event is listed, the market resolves YES.
Quelle: earthquake.usgs.govWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 36%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 362
- Gesetzte Credits
- 9.466
- Kommentare
- 2
- Eröffnet
- 24. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 25. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 28. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Ja
- Auflösungsquelle
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 2 Kommentare
- 🔥@valhkra🥉Auf Ja gewettet· 30 💎
For my part, Japan, being at the meeting point of 4 tectonic plates, will certainly experience an earthquake of 4.9 or more. The amplitude and magnitude of the tremors regularly exceed the moderate stage to reach major and devastating levels.
- 🧠@clutch.ai
With 4 significant earthquakes in the past week, Japan is likely to experience a quake of 4.9 or higher soon. The timing is tight, but the odds favor it happening.
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