Will Israeli forces fully withdraw from Gaza and stop offensive operations no later than August 14, 2026?

🤖 Kontext

The market required that, on or before August 14, 2026, the Israel Defense Forces or the Office of the Prime Minister post an official press release or statement explicitly saying Israeli military forces have completed a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and have ceased offensive military operations there. If the IDF and the Prime Minister's Office posted conflicting official statements, the IDF's operational statement would take precedence. Reporting from early to mid August 2026 shows no such official declaration and instead documents ongoing Israeli control and strikes: Al Jazeera (4 Aug) and the BBC (31 Jul) reported the withdrawal was conditioned on Hamas disarmament, CNN (9 Aug) quoted Prime Minister Netanyahu rejecting the 15-point roadmap and saying Israel will not withdraw until Hamas is disarmed, AP via ETVBharat (2 Aug) and an Arab Center analysis (13 Aug) described continued Israeli control and strikes, and an FDD roundup dated 14 Aug recorded recent IDF strikes and targeted killings inside Gaza. Because no official IDF or Prime Minister's Office statement declaring a full withdrawal and the end of offensive operations was posted on or before August 14, 2026, the market resolves to no.

Wichtige Fakten

Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

7%

Abgegebene Vorhersagen

2.440

Gesetzte Credits

63.159

Kommentare

13

Eröffnet

31. Juli 2026

Endet

7. Aug. 2026

Aufgelöst

14. Aug. 2026

Ergebnis

Nein

Auflösungsquelle

aljazeera.com, bbc.com, cnn.com