Will Missouri use the Republican-backed congressional map for ballots in the November general election?

42%
-26 % letzte 24 Std.

7%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 21. Aug.The market required a public, formal announcement between August 4, 2026 and August 20, 2026, either a single joint statement or matching official statements, in which Hamas explicitly committed to disarm using words like “disarm”, “surrender weapons”, “turn over weapons” or “dismantle military capabilities” and Israel explicitly committed to halt strikes and withdraw. In the August 4–20 window reporting shows Hamas officials and mediators signaled willingness to follow a roadmap that includes disarmament and on August 16 Hamas representatives said they backed the plan and demanded Israel halt attacks and withdraw, but Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly said on August 4 that Israel “will not withdraw … until Hamas has completely disarmed” and Israeli officials rejected the proposed sequencing while strikes continued through August 20. Because there was no joint or matching official announcement meeting both explicit commitments in that period, the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden7%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 93 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: The supplied reporting for the Aug 4–20 window shows Hamas (via mediators and Hamas officials) affirmed willingness to proceed with a roadmap that includes disarmament, but Israel did not make a matching public commitment to halt strikes and withdraw. On Aug 4 the Washington Post quotes Prime Minister Netanyahu saying Israel “will not withdraw … until Hamas has completely disarmed” and that Israel had not agreed to the U.S. draft. NPR (Aug 16) reports Hamas officials saying the group is committed to the road map and demanding Israel halt attacks and withdraw, but notes Netanyahu had rejected the 15‑point plan. Reuters reporting reproduced on Aug 20 shows mediators condemning Israeli strikes and explicitly says Netanyahu rejected the sequencing (insisting Hamas must fully disarm before any Israeli withdrawal) while strikes continued. There is no evidence in the provided pages of a single joint statement or matching official Israeli statement between 2026-08-04 and 2026-08-20 in which both (1) Hamas explicitly committed to disarm using the cited language and (2) Israel explicitly committed to halt strikes and withdraw. The contemporaneous Israeli public statements amount to explicit refusal, which is positive evidence the required mutual/public agreement did not occur in that interval.
Quelle: washingtonpost.comQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden
42%
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59%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

41%
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68%
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42%
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54%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
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