Will Houthi forces attack a commercial ship in the Bab el‑Mandeb or southern Red Sea?

🤖 Kontext

YES if, between 00:00 on 12 August 2026 and 23:59:59 on 18 August 2026 inclusive (UTC+3), at least one commercially‑operated vessel is publicly reported to have been struck or to have been the target of an attempted or successful boarding or an attempted/actual strike using missiles, drones, torpedoes, rockets, or explosive devices in the Bab el‑Mandeb strait or waters commonly charted as the southern Red Sea. The reporting must explicitly attribute the incident to Houthi forces (also called Ansar Allah) via an official statement from a national navy, coast guard, maritime authority, or the vessel’s operator, or via at least one major international news agency (for example AP, Reuters, or BBC). Unverified social‑media posts without corroboration by those sources do not count. Otherwise NO.

Wichtige Fakten

Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community

54%

Abgegebene Vorhersagen

8

Gesetzte Credits

200

Kommentare

1

Eröffnet

11. Aug. 2026

Endet

11. Aug. 2026

Aufgelöst

19. Aug. 2026

Ergebnis

Nein