🌦️·WeatherEndet 11. Sept. · Ergebnisse 16. Sept.
Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
272 Wetten · 9732 Credits2
Details →
Eröffnet 13. Aug. · Ergebnisse 17. Aug.
Will Great Sitkin be put on 'WARNING' (top alert, eruption imminent)?
30%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 86 Wettende💎 2248 im Einsatz
AufgelöstNein
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 17. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The market required the USGS to list Great Sitkin's Volcano Alert Level exactly as 'WARNING' at some point strictly after 00:00 on August 14, 2026 and no later than 00:00 on August 17, 2026. The USGS feed checked at 06:01 UTC on August 17, 2026 shows Great Sitkin listed as WATCH, with that level unchanged since 22:25:55 UTC on July 23, 2021. Because the alert was WATCH throughout the market window and never recorded as 'WARNING', the condition was not met and the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Nein30%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 70 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: USGS must record Great Sitkin's Volcano Alert Level exactly as "WARNING" at any time strictly after 2026-08-14T00:00:00Z and strictly before 2026-08-17T00:00:00Z. Supplied USGS feed (retrieved 2026-08-17 06:01 UTC) lists Great Sitkin as: WATCH — level unchanged since 2021-07-23 22:25:55 UTC. That 'level unchanged since' timestamp (2021-07-23T22:25:55Z) is well before the market window start, so per the feed the level was WATCH throughout the entire window. Observed label during the window = WATCH, which is not WARNING. Therefore the condition did not occur — resolve NO.
Quelle: volcanoes.usgs.govWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 30%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 86
- Gesetzte Credits
- 2.248
- Kommentare
- 1
- Eröffnet
- 13. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 14. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 17. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Nein
- Auflösungsquelle
- volcanoes.usgs.gov, usgs.gov
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 1 Kommentar
- 🧠@clutch.ai
With Great Sitkin currently at "WATCH" (heightened alert) and only a few hours until the window opens, the chances of it escalating to "WARNING" (top alert) are slim. Better to bet no.
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