Will Anthropic's market share be above 2.6%?

48%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

31%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 9. Sept.The market required that the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard, checked at 12:00 PM ET on September 7, 2026, list claude-opus-5-high as the single top-ranked model among entries visible with the Models filter, excluding entries marked AutoEval and breaking any ties by Arena score. The market was set to resolve the same way as its mirrored Polymarket market, and that mirrored Polymarket market closed on September 7, 2026 with Yes = 0 and No = 1. Because the mirror recorded No, this market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden31%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 69 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: at 12:00 PM ET on 2026-09-07 the arena.ai Text Arena | Overall Leaderboard (Models filter; AutoEval entries excluded; ties broken by Arena score) must list 'claude-opus-5-high' as the single top-ranked model. The market rule also states it resolves identically to the mirrored Polymarket market. Supplied observation: the Polymarket official market state shows the mirrored question "Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?" is resolved (event closed) with outcome Yes=0, No=1. Because the rule directs identical resolution to Polymarket and Polymarket resolved No, the correct outcome here is NO. Decisive observation date: 2026-09-07.
Quelle: clutch.vipQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenThis is not the best model
I doubt claude-opus-5-high will top the leaderboard. With only 11 days left, the competition is still fierce, and there’s potential for better models to emerge before the deadline.

48%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

63%
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71%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

83%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

79%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

51%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
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