Will Anthropic's market share be above 2.6%?

48%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

45%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 2. Sept.The rule required counting how many calendar days from August 1, 2026 through August 31, 2026 inclusive had the claude.ai daily status box on Claude’s official status page show any color other than green, once each day’s box was finalized. An independent mirrored market report (Polymarket) closed with prices Yes=0 and No=1, indicating the independent report treated the condition as not met. Because that final report shows the count was not between 8 and 10 days, the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden45%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 55 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: Count the number of calendar days in 2026-08-01 through 2026-08-31 (inclusive) where the claude.ai daily status box is non-green; the market resolves YES if that count is between 8 and 10 inclusive. The market rule also explicitly states it "resolves identically to the official resolution of the mirrored Polymarket market." Observed evidence (from supplied data): the Polymarket official market state shows the mirrored question "Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?" is resolved (Event closed: yes) with outcome prices Yes=0, No=1 — i.e., Polymarket resolved to NO. Comparison: because the market rule mandates resolving identically to the mirrored Polymarket market and Polymarket's official resolution for the 8-10-days question is NO, this market resolves to NO.
Quelle: clutch.vipQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden
48%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

63%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

71%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

83%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

79%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

51%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
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