Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

56%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 18. Aug.The rule said the market is YES if Météo‑France's official vigilance archive map for 17 August 2026 showed at any time that day at least one metropolitan département, a metropolitan coastal vigilance zone, or the national roll‑up "FRANCE" at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the thunderstorms hazard. The Météo‑France archive for 17 August 2026 lists only Canicule at orange for 07 Ardèche, 13 Bouches‑du‑Rhône, 26 Drôme, 30 Gard, 83 Var, 84 Vaucluse and FRANCE, while Orages appears only in the yellow list and there are no Orages entries in the orange/red table. Because no metropolitan département, coastal zone, or FRANCE was orange or red for thunderstorms on 17 August 2026, the condition was not met and the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden56%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 56 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: On 2026-08-17, at least one metropolitan département, a metropolitan coastal vigilance zone, or the national roll-up "FRANCE" must be at vigilance level orange (3) or red (4) for the hazard "Orages" (thunderstorms) at any time during that calendar date. Target date/window: 2026-08-17 (any time during that date). Observations from the supplied Météo‑France archived map for 2026-08-17: the exhaustive ORANGE/ROUGE list shows only Canicule (heatwave) at orange for 07 Ardèche, 13 Bouches-du-Rhône, 26 Drôme, 30 Gard, 83 Var, 84 Vaucluse and FRANCE (national roll-up) (all orange); no Orages entries appear in the ORANGE/ROUGE table. The Orages (thunderstorms) entries appear only in the JAUNE list (multiple départements and FRANCE are listed as jaune). The archive states the two lists are COMPLETE and that any area×hazard not appearing in the orange/rouge list was vert. Therefore there is positive evidence that no metropolitan département, metropolitan coastal zone, or FRANCE was at orange or red for Orages on 2026-08-17. Comparison: condition not met. Decisive observation date: 2026-08-17.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenOnly yellow vigilance is expected
It's not planned
Given the current forecast, there's a solid chance we'll see at least one département under orange or red vigilance for thunderstorms tomorrow. Météo-France has yellow warnings in place, so I'm betting on it happening.

41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

91%
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22%
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50%
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21%
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39%
-4 % letzte 24 Std.
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