Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

40%
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76%
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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 9. Sept.The market required that Météo‑France’s official Vigilance archive for September 8, 2026 show at any time at least one metropolitan département, a metropolitan coastal zone, or the national roll‑up 'FRANCE' at Vigilance orange or red for the hazard 'canicule'. The archived map for that date shows no département, no coastal zone and not the FRANCE roll‑up at orange or red for any hazard, and 'canicule' appears only at yellow in the departments Alpes‑Maritimes, Ardèche, Aude, Bouches‑du‑Rhône, Drôme, Gard, Hérault, Isère, Rhône, Var and Vaucluse, with the FRANCE roll‑up also at yellow. Because nothing reached orange or red for canicule on September 8, 2026, the market resolves no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden76%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 76 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: On 2026-09-08 (any time during that day) at least one metropolitan French département, a metropolitan coastal zone, or the 'FRANCE' national roll-up is at Météo‑France Vigilance ORANGE (3) or ROUGE (4) for the hazard 'canicule' (heatwave). Target date/window: 2026-09-08 (whole day). Observations: the supplied Météo‑France archived map for 2026-09-08 (built from 3/3 snapshots and declared exhaustive) states under “At ORANGE or ROUGE at any point on 2026-09-08” = NONE — no département, coastal zone or the national roll-up reached orange or rouge for any hazard that day. The supplied data shows canicule only at JAUNE in 12 departments (06 Alpes-Maritimes, 07 Ardèche, 11 Aude, 13 Bouches-du-Rhône, 26 Drôme, 30 Gard, 34 Hérault, 38 Isère, 69 Rhône, 83 Var, 84 Vaucluse) and the FRANCE national roll-up (all JAUNE). Comparison: required >=1 area or roll-up at ORANGE/ROUGE for canicule; observed 0 areas/roll-up at ORANGE or ROUGE (canicule present only at JAUNE). Therefore the market resolves NO.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenGiven the current forecast showing multiple areas in orange for canicule, it’s safe to say at least one département will be on alert tomorrow. Expect it to happen.

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63%
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20%
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39%
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