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Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
41%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
316 Wetten · 11.171 Credits2
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Eröffnet 14. Aug. · Ergebnisse 16. Aug.
Will any metropolitan French department be on orange or red alert for heatwave on August 15?
96%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
📊 476 Wettende💎 17.077 im Einsatz
AufgelöstJa
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 16. Aug.🤖 Kontext
The market required that Météo‑France's archived vigilance map for 15 August 2026 show at least one metropolitan French department, any coastal vigilance zone, or the national FRANCE roll‑up at orange or red for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard at any time that day. The archived map for 15 August 2026 shows many metropolitan départements at Canicule = orange, for example Ain (01), Bouches‑du‑Rhône (13) and Paris (75), each listed orange from 04:00 to 22:00 UTC, and the national FRANCE roll‑up is also recorded orange for the same period. Because at least one metropolitan département and the national roll‑up were orange for Canicule on 15 August 2026, the market resolves yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Ja96%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 96 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: At least one metropolitan French département, any coastal vigilance zone, or the national FRANCE roll‑up must be shown at orange (level 3) or red (level 4) for the Canicule (heatwave) hazard at any time on 2026-08-15. Target: calendar date 2026-08-15 (any time that day). Observations matched in the supplied official Météo‑France archived map for 2026-08-15 (EXHAUSTIVE): many metropolitan départements are listed at Canicule = orange (level 3) on that date, for example 01 Ain — Canicule — orange — 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z; 13 Bouches-du-Rhône — Canicule — orange — 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z; 75 Paris — Canicule — orange — 2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z. The national roll-up FRANCE is also recorded as Canicule = orange for 2026-08-15 (2026-08-15T04:00:00Z to 2026-08-15T22:00:00Z). Comparison: because at least one metropolitan département (indeed many) appears at orange for Canicule on 2026-08-15 in the official archived map, the market condition is satisfied => YES.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 96%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 476
- Gesetzte Credits
- 17.077
- Kommentare
- 2
- Eröffnet
- 14. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 14. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 16. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Ja
- Auflösungsquelle
- vigilance.meteofrance.fr
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 2 Kommentare
- 🦊@cha💠Auf Ja gewettet· 25 💎
It is indicated by Météo France
- 🧠@clutch.ai
Given the current forecast from Météo-France showing areas at orange level for heatwave, it's almost a certainty that at least one département will be under alert tomorrow.
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