Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

39%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

63%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 14. Aug.The rule required that Météo‑France's archived map for August 13, 2026 show at least one metropolitan French département, a metropolitan coastal zone, or the national roll‑up at orange (3) or red (4) for the hazard “orages” at any time that day. The archived Météo‑France map for August 13, 2026 lists orange alerts only for the hazard “Canicule”, including the France national roll‑up at orange, while “Orages” appears only in the yellow list for several départements and for the national roll‑up. Because no metropolitan area or the national roll‑up was at orange or red for “orages” on August 13, 2026, the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden63%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 63 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: whether any metropolitan French département, metropolitan coastal zone, or the national roll‑up was at Vigilance level orange (3) or rouge (4) for the hazard “orages” at any time on 2026-08-13. Target date/window: 2026-08-13. Observations from the supplied Météo‑France archived map (explicitly labelled EXHAUSTIVE and built from the two snapshots published that day): the ORANGE/ROUGE table lists many areas at orange but every entry is for the hazard “Canicule (heatwave)” (including FRANCE national roll‑up at orange). The hazard “Orages (thunderstorms)” does not appear in the ORANGE/ROUGE table; it appears only in the JAUNE list (yellow) for several départements and for the FRANCE national roll‑up. Because no area×hazard entry for Orages at level orange or rouge appears in the authoritative orange/rouge list for 2026-08-13, the market condition is not met. Decision: NO.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenJust a yellow card for the Basque Country expected
No orange or red alert expected for tomorrow
the non will go through without any problem!!! the map in green, just two or three departments in yellow in the south
Yes
Given the current forecast, it looks likely that there will be at least one département under orange or red alert for thunderstorms tomorrow. Météo-France has already issued warnings in several areas.

39%
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84%
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20%
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53%
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20%
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39%
-3 % letzte 24 Std.
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