Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

39%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

49%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 13. Aug.The market required that Météo‑France's official Vigilance archive show at least one metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up at orange or red for thunderstorms at any time on August 12, 2026. The archived Vigilance map for 12 August 2026 shows that orange and red levels that day applied only to the heatwave, while thunderstorms were marked yellow in 13 departments and at the national roll‑up and all other areas remained green. Because no area reached orange or red for thunderstorms on August 12, 2026, the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden49%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 51 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: whether any metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the national roll‑up reached Vigilance level ORANGE or ROUGE for Orages (thunderstorms, hazard 3) at any time during calendar day 2026-08-12 (local time). Target date/window: 2026-08-12. Observations: the supplied Météo‑France archived Vigilance map for 2026-08-12 (exhaustive, built from the two map snapshots published that day). The ORANGE/ROUGE table lists many areas but all entries are for Canicule (heatwave); no ORANGE or ROUGE entry is for Orages. The JAUNE table explicitly shows Orages as JAUNE in 13 departments plus the national roll‑up. The archive states any area×hazard not listed was vert (no vigilance) for the whole day. Comparison: no area reached ORANGE or ROUGE for Orages on 2026-08-12, so the market condition is not met. Conclusion: NO.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenNo alert for the storm
no alerts expected, except for a yellow warning in the south so it's all good!!!
Orange heat alert yes, but for now only yellow storm alert
67 departments announced in orange alert for thunderstorms.
Orange storm announced in the Basque Country

39%
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84%
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20%
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52%
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20%
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39%
-3 % letzte 24 Std.
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