Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

39%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

69%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 5. Sept.The market required that Météo‑France's archived Vigilance product for September 4, 2026 show at least one metropolitan French département, a coastal zone, or the national 'FRANCE' roll‑up at orange or red for the heatwave hazard at any time that day. The archive shows Ardèche (07), Aude (11), Drôme (26), Gard (30) and Hérault (34) at orange for canicule from 10:00 to 22:00 UTC on September 4, 2026, Pyrénées‑Orientales (66) at orange from 14:00 to 22:00 UTC, and the national FRANCE roll‑up at orange from 10:00 to 22:00 UTC. Because metropolitan départements and the national roll‑up were marked orange for the heatwave on that date, the market resolves yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden69%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 69 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: At least one metropolitan French département, a coastal zone, or the national roll-up 'FRANCE' must be at level orange or red for the heatwave (canicule) hazard at any time on 2026-09-04. Target date/window: the calendar date 2026-09-04 (any time that day). Observations from the supplied Météo‑France Vigilance archived map for 2026-09-04 (UTC times): 07 Ardèche — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z; 11 Aude — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z; 26 Drôme — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z; 30 Gard — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z; 34 Hérault — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z; 66 Pyrénées-Orientales — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T14:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z; and FRANCE (national roll-up) — Canicule — orange — 2026-09-04T10:00:00Z to 2026-09-04T22:00:00Z. Comparison and conclusion: the archived product shows multiple metropolitan départements (and the national roll-up) labelled orange for canicule during 2026-09-04, which satisfies the market's YES condition. Therefore outcome = YES.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenOnly yellow alerts
No
Given the current forecast showing only jaune alerts, it's highly unlikely any département will reach orange or rouge. Count on a NO here.

39%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

84%
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20%
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53%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

20%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

39%
-3 % letzte 24 Std.
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