Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

40%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

19%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 20. Aug.The market required that Météo‑France's official vigilance map for 19 August 2026 show at least one metropolitan French département, a coastal zone, or the national FRANCE roll‑up at orange or red for Canicule at any time during that date, with overseas territories excluded and only the Canicule hazard counting. Météo‑France's official map for 19 August 2026 shows no metropolitan département, coastal zone, or the FRANCE roll‑up at orange or red for Canicule, and some areas were listed at yellow only. Because the rule required at least one orange or red entry and none appeared on that date, the condition is not met and the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden19%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 81 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: whether any metropolitan French département, coastal zone, or the national FRANCE roll-up was at vigilance level orange (3) or rouge (4) for Canicule (heatwave) at any time during 2026-08-19. Target window: the calendar date 2026-08-19. Observations used: the official Météo‑France Vigilance archived map for 2026-08-19 (built from 2 of 2 snapshots published that day). The archive explicitly reports: 'At ORANGE or ROUGE at any point on 2026-08-19: NONE — no département, coastal zone or the national roll-up reached orange or rouge for any hazard on this date.' It separately lists departments at JAUNE for Canicule (including the national FRANCE roll-up) but no entries at orange or rouge. Comparison and conclusion: because the authoritative archive for 2026-08-19 shows no orange or red entries for any area for the Canicule hazard, the condition is not met. Therefore outcome = NO.
Quelle: vigilance.meteofrance.frQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenAccording to Météo France, no
I'm skeptical. With Météo-France only forecasting yellow alerts for heatwave tomorrow, I doubt any departments will hit orange or red. Not looking good for this bet.

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84%
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24%
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63%
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20%
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39%
-1 % letzte 24 Std.
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