Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

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Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 24. Aug.The market is decided by AEMET's Meteoalerta archive for 23 August 2026: if any named Spanish area had an orange or red aviso explicitly listing thunderstorms as a hazard at any time on that calendar day, the market resolves to yes. AEMET's archive for 23 August 2026 shows several named areas with orange avisos for thunderstorms, for example Bajo Aragón de Teruel (14:00 to 21:59), Centro de Huesca (16:00 to 23:59), Cinco Villas de Zaragoza (14:00 to 21:59), Pirineo oscense (16:00 to 23:59), Ribera del Ebro de Zaragoza (14:00 to 21:59) and Sur de Huesca (14:00 to 21:59). Because at least one named area had an orange aviso explicitly for thunderstorms on 23 August 2026, the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden48%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 52 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: Per AEMET archived Meteoalerta for 2026-08-23, does at least one Spanish 'área' have an aviso at level naranja or rojo that explicitly lists the hazard 'thunderstorms' (tormentas) at any time on 2026-08-23? Target window: the calendar day 2026-08-23. Observations matched (from the supplied AEMET archive, labelled EXHAUSTIVE for 2026-08-23): the 'At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-08-23' table contains multiple rows with Hazard = 'thunderstorms' and Level = 'naranja (orange)'. Examples include: - Bajo Aragón de Teruel — thunderstorms — naranja — 2026-08-23T14:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-23T21:59:59+02:00; - Centro de Huesca — thunderstorms — naranja — 2026-08-23T16:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-23T23:59:59+02:00; - Cinco Villas de Zaragoza — thunderstorms — naranja — 2026-08-23T14:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-23T21:59:59+02:00; - Pirineo oscense — thunderstorms — naranja — 2026-08-23T16:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-23T23:59:59+02:00; - Ribera del Ebro de Zaragoza — thunderstorms — naranja — 2026-08-23T14:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-23T21:59:59+02:00; - Sur de Huesca — thunderstorms — naranja — 2026-08-23T14:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-23T21:59:59+02:00. Comparison: at least one (in fact several) named áreas had a naranja aviso explicitly naming 'thunderstorms' on 2026-08-23, which satisfies the market's YES condition.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenNo, AEMET's forecast for tomorrow shows thunderstorms at yellow level only. Without an orange or red alert, this won't happen.

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