Will a tropical cyclone in the Eastern North Pacific be named 'Norbert'?

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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 27. Aug.The rule required that AEMET's archived Meteoalerta warnings for 26 August 2026 show at least one area in Spain with an aviso naranja or aviso rojo for thunderstorms at any time during that day. AEMET's exhaustive archive for 26 August 2026 lists naranja warnings only for Rissagas (Costa, Menorca) and for rain in Oeste de A Coruña, and it contains no naranja or rojo entries that name thunderstorms; thunderstorms appear only at the amarillo level. Because no area reached naranja or rojo for thunderstorms on 26 August 2026, the condition is not met and the market resolves no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden40%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 60 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: at least one Spanish area had an AEMET aviso naranja or aviso rojo for thunderstorms at any time during 2026-08-26 (Spain local time). Target window: 2026-08-26 00:00–23:59 (Spain local time). Observations used: the supplied AEMET archived warnings for 2026-08-26 (the data states it is EXHAUSTIVE for that date). The 'At NARANJA or ROJO' table lists only the hazard 'Rissagas' (Costa - Menorca) at naranja (2026-08-26T11:00+02:00 to 2026-08-26T23:59:59+02:00) and the hazard 'rain' (Oeste de A Coruña) at naranja (2026-08-26T09:00+02:00 to 2026-08-26T17:59:59+02:00). There are NO entries in the NARANJA/ROJO table with hazard 'thunderstorms' (tormentas). Thunderstorms do appear in the AMARILLO section for many areas, but amarillo does not meet the required naranja/rojo threshold. The archive explicitly states that any area×hazard not listed at naranja/rojo was verde that day, so absence from the NARANJA/ROJO list is positive evidence it did not reach orange/red. Therefore the condition was not met on 2026-08-26 and the correct resolution is NO.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenGiven that thunderstorms are forecast at the yellow level, the potential for a warning upgrade to orange or red exists. It's likely at least one area will be affected on the 26th.

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