Wird es in Indonesien ein Erdbeben der Stärke 5,5 oder größer geben?

27%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

87%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 20. Aug.The market required that AEMET's Meteoalerta archive for 19 August 2026 show at least one area in Spain with an 'aviso naranja' or an 'aviso rojo' for the hazard 'Temperaturas extremas' at any time during that Spain-local calendar day. The AEMET archive for 19 August 2026 records multiple such warnings. For example, Litoral norte de Alicante was rojo from 13:00 to 20:59 CEST, Litoral norte de Valencia was rojo from 13:00 to 20:59 CEST, Altiplano de Murcia was naranja from 13:00 to 20:59 CEST, and Ribera del Ebro de Zaragoza was rojo from 17:00 to 19:59 CEST. Because at least one Spanish area had an aviso naranja or aviso rojo for 'Temperaturas extremas' on 19 August 2026, the market resolves to yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden87%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 87 % sicher und lag goldrichtig.
Warum: Extracted condition: Does the AEMET Meteoalerta archive for Spain local date 2026-08-19 record at least one área with aviso nivel 'naranja' or 'rojo' for the hazard 'Temperaturas extremas' (extreme high temperatures) at any time during that calendar day? Target window: 2026-08-19 (Spain local). Observations used: The supplied AEMET archived warnings for 2026-08-19 (labeled EXHAUSTIVE) list many entries where the hazard is 'extreme high temperatures (heat)' at level naranja or rojo during 2026-08-19. Representative entries: Altiplano de Murcia — extreme high temperatures — naranja — 2026-08-19T13:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-19T20:59:59+02:00; Litoral norte de Alicante — extreme high temperatures — rojo — 2026-08-19T13:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-19T20:59:59+02:00; Litoral norte de Valencia — extreme high temperatures — rojo — 2026-08-19T13:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-19T20:59:59+02:00; Ribera del Ebro de Zaragoza — extreme high temperatures — rojo — 2026-08-19T17:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-19T19:59:59+02:00. Comparison: At least one área (in fact many) is recorded as naranja or rojo for the exact hazard 'extreme high temperatures' on 2026-08-19, so the market condition is satisfied. Decision: YES.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWith AEMET forecasting orange warnings for several areas, it's almost certain we'll see at least one aviso naranja or rojo on the 19th. Bet on yes; they're expecting extreme heat across Spain.

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68%
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25%
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72%
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56%
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66%
+6 % letzte 24 Std.
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