Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater occur in Indonesia?

29%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

50%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 11. Sept.The market required that AEMET's official archived warnings for 10 September 2026 show at least one named Spanish area assigned an 'aviso naranja' or 'aviso rojo' specifically for thunderstorms at any time during that calendar day in Spain local time (CEST, UTC+02:00). AEMET's archive shows 'aviso naranja' for thunderstorms covering Levante almeriense, Poniente y Almería Capital, Nacimiento y Campo de Tabernas, and Valle del Almanzora y Los Vélez with intervals that include 00:00 to 03:59 CEST on 10 September 2026. Because those entries explicitly name thunderstorms and overlap the calendar day 10 September 2026 in Spain, the condition is met and the market resolves to yes.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden50%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 50 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: At least one named Spanish área is assigned aviso naranja or aviso rojo specifically for thunderstorms/tormentas at any time during the calendar day 2026-09-10 (Spain local time, CEST/UTC+02:00). Target window: 2026-09-10 00:00:00+02:00 through 2026-09-10 23:59:59+02:00. Observations matched in the supplied AEMET archive (entries under 'At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-09-10') that explicitly list the hazard 'thunderstorms' with naranja level and intervals overlapping 2026-09-10: 1) Levante almeriense — thunderstorms — naranja — From 2026-09-09T21:00:00+02:00 To 2026-09-10T03:59:59+02:00 (overlaps 2026-09-10 00:00–03:59:59 CEST); 2) Poniente y Almería Capital — thunderstorms — naranja — From 2026-09-09T21:00:00+02:00 To 2026-09-10T03:59:59+02:00 (overlaps 2026-09-10); 3) Nacimiento y Campo de Tabernas — thunderstorms — naranja — From 2026-09-09T21:00:00+02:00 To 2026-09-10T03:59:59+02:00 (overlaps 2026-09-10); 4) Valle del Almanzora y Los Vélez — thunderstorms — naranja — From 2026-09-09T18:00:00+02:00 To 2026-09-10T03:59:59+02:00 (overlaps 2026-09-10). Comparison: these entries explicitly name 'thunderstorms' and their intervals include times on 2026-09-10, so the condition (at least one area with naranja/red for thunderstorms during that calendar day) is satisfied. Conclusion: YES.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWith thunderstorms forecasted at yellow level across several regions, it’s unlikely to reach an orange or red alert. AEMET hasn't indicated severe enough conditions. So, NO.

29%
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50%
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15%
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27%
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61%
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85%
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