Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 28. Aug.The rule required that AEMET's Meteoalerta archive show at least one area in Spain on August 27, 2026 listed as 'aviso nivel naranja' or 'aviso nivel rojo' specifically for extreme high temperatures. AEMET's archive for 27 August 2026 shows naranja or rojo entries only for the hazard rissagas, namely Costa - Menorca with an aviso naranja from 11:00 on 27 August 2026 to 07:59:59 on 28 August 2026, while temperature warnings that day appear only at the amarillo level for 63 areas. Because there were no naranja or rojo warnings for heat on 27 August 2026, the condition was not met and the market resolves to no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden62%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 62 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: At least one Spanish area on 2026-08-27 had an AEMET Meteoalerta 'aviso nivel naranja' or 'aviso nivel rojo' explicitly for extreme high temperatures (heat). Target date/window: 2026-08-27 (any portion of that calendar day). Observed data: The supplied AEMET archive for 2026-08-27 explicitly lists all areas that were at NARANJA or ROJO that day; every NARANJA/ROJO entry in the archive is for the hazard 'Rissagas' (Costa - Menorca, naranja from 2026-08-27T11:00:00+02:00 to 2026-08-28T07:59:59+02:00). Heat (extreme high temperatures) appears only in the AMARILLO section (63 areas) for 2026-08-27. The archive states it is exhaustive and that absence from the naranja/rojo list is positive evidence of not reaching those levels. Comparison: there are no naranja or rojo entries for the heat hazard on 2026-08-27, so the market condition is not met. Outcome: NO.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenGiven the current forecasts from AEMET showing only yellow warnings for extreme heat, it's unlikely we'll see any orange or red alerts tomorrow. I wouldn't bet on it happening.

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