Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

38%
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51%
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Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 30. Aug.The market required that AEMET's Meteoalerta archive for 29 August 2026 list at least one "aviso naranja" or "aviso rojo" explicitly for the hazard labeled "Rissagas" in any area of Spain. The official Meteoalerta archive for 29 August 2026 is marked exhaustive and records that no area in Spain reached naranja or rojo for any hazard on that date, so there are no naranja or rojo warnings for Rissagas. Because the archive shows no such warnings, the condition is not met and the outcome is no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden51%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 51 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: AEMET Meteoalerta archived warnings for 2026-08-29 must show at least one aviso at level 'naranja' or 'rojo' explicitly for the hazard labeled 'Rissagas' for any area in Spain on 2026-08-29. Target date/window: the full day 2026-08-29. Observed data (from supplied AEMET archive): the archive is marked EXHAUSTIVE for 2026-08-29 and explicitly states: 'At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-08-29 — NONE — no área in Spain reached naranja or rojo for any hazard on this date.' It also states any área×hazard not listed was verde that day. Comparison: because the official archived record for 2026-08-29 shows zero naranja/rojo warnings for any hazard, it therefore shows zero naranja/rojo warnings explicitly for 'Rissagas'. The market condition is not met. Outcome: NO.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenIt's likely we'll see at least one aviso naranja for Rissagas tomorrow; AEMET has already indicated a peak forecast at that level for Menorca. Not looking like a stretch.

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39%
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