Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?

38%
-10 % letzte 24 Std.

81%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
Aufgelöst: Nein
Ergebnisse 22. Aug.We check AEMET's Meteoalerta archive for 21 August 2026 to see if any Spanish area received an aviso nivel naranja or aviso rojo specifically for thunderstorms ('tormentas') at any time that day. The archive for 21 August 2026 is exhaustive and shows no naranja or rojo entries with the hazard 'thunderstorms'. The naranja/rojo table contains only rain warnings, for example Litoral norte de Tarragona and Litoral sur de Tarragona were marked naranja starting at 18:00 CEST on 21 August 2026, so the condition is not met and the market resolves no.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden81%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 81 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: whether any Spanish área had an AEMET aviso nivel naranja or rojo specifically for thunderstorms ('tormentas') at any time on 2026-08-21. Target window: the calendar day 2026-08-21. Observations used: the supplied AEMET Meteoalerta archived warnings for 2026-08-21 (the data states the lists are EXHAUSTIVE for that date). The archive's "At NARANJA or ROJO at any point on 2026-08-21" table contains only hazard='rain' entries (e.g., Litoral norte de Tarragona and Litoral sur de Tarragona listed as naranja with time ranges starting 2026-08-21T18:00:00+02:00, some extending past midnight). There are no entries in the NARANJA/ROJO section with hazard='thunderstorms'/'tormentas'. The archive separately lists many 'thunderstorms' warnings, but only at AMARILLO (yellow) level. Because the authoritative archive for 2026-08-21 (declared exhaustive) shows no naranja or rojo warnings whose hazard field is 'thunderstorms'/'tormentas', the market condition is not met. Therefore outcome = NO.
Quelle: aemet.esQuellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenGiven that the forecast only shows yellow alerts for thunderstorms, a warning at naranja or rojo seems unlikely. I'd bet NO on this one.

38%
-10 % letzte 24 Std.

20%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

60%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

84%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

25%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.

63%
Stabil · letzte 24 Std.
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