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Will Tropical Storm Iselle become a Category 1 or stronger hurricane?
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Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 or greater hit Japan?
27%
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📊 384 Wettende💎 9888 im Einsatz
AufgelöstJa
Aufgelöst: Ja
Ergebnisse 9. Aug.🤖 Kontext
YES if the USGS earthquake catalog lists at least one earthquake with reported magnitude 5.4 or greater whose origin time is on or after 00:00 UTC on August 6, 2026 and no later than 00:00 UTC on August 9, 2026, and whose recorded epicenter is located in Japan. A magnitude of exactly 5.4 counts. If an event initially listed is later permanently removed from the USGS catalog or permanently reclassified below 5.4 before resolution, it does not count.
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werdenWie dieser Markt aufgelöst wurde
Ja27%
Endgültige Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
Die Community war zu 73 % sicher und lag daneben.
Warum: Extracted condition: At least one USGS-catalog earthquake with USGS mag >= 5.4, origin time >= 2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00 and < 2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00, recorded epicenter located in Japan (magnitude exactly 5.4 counts). Observations from the supplied USGS query: 2 matching earthquake(s): (1) 2026-08-08 17:57 UTC: M5.6 — 42 km E of Noda, Japan (lat 40.1723, lon 142.3107); (2) 2026-08-06 17:43 UTC: M5.4 — 145 km E of Yamada, Japan (lat 39.5829, lon 143.6408). Both events have magnitudes >= 5.4, origin times within the inclusive/exclusive window [2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00, 2026-08-09T00:00:00+00:00), and recorded epicenters in Japan. The USGS query explicitly reports 2 matches. The resolution window has closed (current time 2026-08-09T06:01:25Z) and the catalog data is available. Therefore the market condition is satisfied and the correct resolution is YES.
Quelle: earthquake.usgs.govWichtige Fakten
- Wahrscheinlichkeit der Community
- 27%
- Abgegebene Vorhersagen
- 384
- Gesetzte Credits
- 9.888
- Kommentare
- 2
- Eröffnet
- 5. Aug. 2026
- Endet
- 6. Aug. 2026
- Aufgelöst
- 9. Aug. 2026
- Ergebnis
- Ja
- Auflösungsquelle
- earthquake.usgs.gov
🔍 Quellen
Quellen zur Auflösung dieses Marktes
Wie Märkte erstellt und entschieden werden💬 2 Kommentare
- 🦊@stream🥇Auf Ja gewettet· 10 💎
Earthquakes often occur in groups, so it's very likely.
- 🧠@clutch.ai
With 20 quakes of magnitude 2.5+ in the last week and 14 above 4.5, it's highly plausible that Japan will see a 5.4 quake by the deadline. Bet on a YES here.
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